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What are the chances in me getting group game tickets with 2 caps ? I know it’s Hard to tell but I’m sure someone is able to give a rough guidance ? Thanks

11 Replies

  • Matthew Isle

    Read around these threads Reece it's the same advice been given multiple times.

    You've got a fairly good chance due to:

    Not all ESTC members will apply (some already have tickets through the earlier sale, most won't bother with ALL group games and the application window is short and just before Christmas).

    The ESTC staff are remarkable at securing extra tickets later down the line.

    Obviously now mathematically it COULD be you'll miss out due to the number of ESTC new recent members - you need to be flexible with your choices i.e. go for the higher ticket categories (which the higher cappers won't want).

    Reckon I'll copy this advice ready for the next person who asks it :-)

  • David Lilley

    As of right now, the caps table is showing 16507 members of the Travel Club, of whom 13488 have at least 2 caps meaning they have been to at least 1 cap-earning match since Euro 2016. If tickets for an England match are oversubscribed, i.e. more applicants than tickets, then members who have not been to any cap-earning matches since the World Cup will not get a ticket unless all members who have been to at least one match have been allocated a ticket. So, zero cappers can be ignored in the assessment of your chances of a ticket.

    For the group matches, our allocation is 12000 tickets. 70% of this figure is 8400 and if every member of the Travel Club applied for a ticket then this would correspond to a caps "cut-off" of 9 caps. To qualify for the 20% ballot, a member needs to have been to at least 4 home matches and 2 away matches in the 2018-20 campaign. This would give them at least 12 caps. So, there won't be a 20% ballot because everyone eligible to take part in it will already be in the 70%. This means the 10% ballot will swell to a 30% ballot.

    Now, suppose all 13488 members with at least 2 caps apply for a ticket. 8400 tickets go to the top cappers, leaving 3600 tickets to be balloted amongst the remaining 5088 members. This gives a chance of success of 71%. If you apply for all 3 group matches then :-

    Chance of no tickets 3%
    Chance of 1 ticket 18%
    Chance of 2 tickets 44%
    Chance of 3 tickets 35%

    Not everyone in the Travel Club will apply for tickets, so this will increase your chances. But also, new members are joining the club every day and this will reduce your chances.

    None of this takes account of the fact that there are 3 ticket categories. When allocating tickets from their official allocation, the FA will give the higher cappers their first choice of ticket category. You will be right at the back of the queue and will have to accept what is left. You should certainly tick the box on the application saying that you are willing to be upgraded if your first choice of ticket category is sold out. I might even suggest that you sit down, knock back a dram of whisky, take a deep breath, and apply for category 2 with a willingness to be upgraded to category 1. It's your call - I don't know your financial situation.

  • Wesley Head

    In reply to David Lilley:

    That is some *** hot maths
  • Dominic Carminati

    In reply to David Lilley:

    David *Carol Vorderman* Lilley - can you do this maths magic for the R16 and QF? I have been trying to keep up but so many threads it’s hard to keep up!
    I think I’m ok for the group games on the above maths but I’m looking further down the tournament.....thanks
  • jason broom

    In reply to David Lilley:

    I got to admit of all the people that post on here your postings are up there with the best mate
    Do you have any connection with the travel club?
    Very good answer that’s simple to understand and never patronising
    Fair play to you mate
  • David Lilley

    In reply to Dominic Carminati:

    Apparently, our ticket allocation for the R16 and QF is going to vary from venue to venue. So, when the FA does their 70%/20%/10% ballot exercise, how many tickets are they going to be allocating to members ? The only way I can see this working in practice is if there are only 5000 conditional tickets distributed to members who apply in the December sales window. If we qualify for one of the venues with a higher allocation, the extra tickets over 5000 for that venue will become available only at that time next June and will be obtained directly from UEFA on a first come first served mad scramble.

    Only qualify for 10% ballot

    If 13488 members apply for 5000 tickets then 4500 tickets will go to members in the 70% allocation and the 20% ballot. This will leave 8988 members competing for 500 tickets. The chances of success are 6%.

    Qualify for 20% ballot

    Here, it is impossible to assess how many members will qualify for the 20% ballot. It cannot be more than 7316, which is the number of members on 12 caps or more. I'll use this figure but this will understate your chances of success because many of these members will not be eligible for the 20% ballot.

    3500 tickets will go to the top cappers in the 70%.

    So, the (over-)estimate is that 3816 members will be competing for 1000 tickets, giving an (under-)estimate of 26% for the chances of success. If anyone misses out, they will still go into the 10% ballot which will increase the (under-)estimate of their chances to 30%.

    Caveats

    These figures are very approximate because of the great uncertainty about the number of members who qualify for the 20% ballot. It is also very unlikely indeed that all or most Travel Club members will apply for the R16 or QF. The logistical nightmare of getting to any one of 5 R16 venues and 4 QF venues at a couple of days notice is going to put off a lot of members from applying.

  • Scott Burrell

    In reply to David Lilley:

    David, you're probably the best person to ask this too.

    Are we expecting kick-off times to be revealed just after the draw or will that be some point later? It's a fair assumption to say we'll play evenings on the week-days and any time at weekends but I'm specifically thinking about the potential game in Dublin. There are due to be two matches played that day in the tournament and I'm sure the relevant authorities would want us to be in the earlier kick-off if they had their way. Am awaiting KO info before I book flights.


    Yes I'm very aware there is a chance we won't win the group but as Dublin flights are relatively cheap it's worth the punt!
  • David Gorton

    In reply to Scott Burrell:

    Where there are three games in a day I'd expect them to be staggered as in previous tournaments - ,presumably 2pm, 5pm, 8pm (UK time)

    On the day of the 3rd England game there are only two games and they will be played at the same time so I'm guessing will be 8pm.

    2nd round and QF games are 2 a day and I''d expect 4pm & 8pm.

    Semi finals I'm guessing will be 8pm

    Final being a Sunday i'd like to think would be at a sensible time, e.g. 3 or 4pm but who knows?
  • David Lilley

    In reply to Scott Burrell:

    It really is difficult to guess when the kick off times might be confirmed. For Euro 2016, the kick off times were all published well before the draw took place. I can only assume that, this time, UEFA want to allow the TV companies some input into the allocation of kick off times once they've seen the draw. Let's hope that the kick off times are confirmed on the night or within a day or two.

    If you're delaying booking your flights to/from Dublin until you know the kick off time, with the intention of getting in and out of Dublin on the same day, remember to take account of the possibility of extra time and penalties.

    @ David Gorton : The kick off times for the quarter finals, semi finals and final are known. It's only the group matches and R16 which are still to be decided. See this page.

    www.uefa.com/.../matches
  • David Gorton

    In reply to David Lilley:

    Thanks. Frankly I think 8pm is a ridiculous time to kick off the final on a Sunday but there you are.
  • Duncan Saunders

    In reply to David Gorton:

    Match times (CET - take 1 hour off for UK time):-

    www.uefa.com/.../matches

    GROUP STAGE

    Friday 12 June
    Group A: Turkey v Italy (21:00, Rome)

    Saturday 13 June
    Group A: Wales v Switzerland (15:00, Baku)
    Group B: Denmark v Finland (18:00, Copenhagen)
    Group B: Belgium v Russia (21:00, St Petersburg)

    Sunday 14 June
    Group D: England v Croatia (15:00 Wembley)
    Group C: Austria v Play-off winner D or A (18:00, Bucharest)
    Group C: Netherlands v Ukraine (21:00, Amsterdam)

    Monday 15 June
    Group D: Play-off winner C v Czech Republic (15:00, Glasgow)
    Group E: Poland v Play-off winner B (18:00, Dublin)
    Group E: Spain v Sweden (21:00, Bilbao)

    Tuesday 16 June
    Group F: Play-off winner A or D v Portugal (18:00, Budapest)
    Group F: France v Germany (21:00, Munich)

    Wednesday 17 June
    Group B: Finland v Russia (15:00, St Petersburg)
    Group A: Turkey v Wales (18:00, Baku)
    Group A: Italy v Switzerland (21:00, Rome)

    Thursday 18 June
    Group C: Ukraine v Play-off winner D or A (15:00, Bucharest)
    Group B: Denmark v Belgium (18:00, Copenhagen)
    Group C: Netherlands v Austria (21:00, Amsterdam)

    Friday 19 June
    Group E: Sweden v Play-off winner B (15:00, Dublin)
    Group D: Croatia v Czech Republic (18:00, Glasgow)
    Group D: England v Play-off winner C (21:00, London)

    Saturday 20 June
    Group F: Play-off winner A or D v France (15:00, Budapest)
    Group F: Portugal v Germany (18:00, Munich)
    Group E: Spain v Poland (21:00, Bilbao)

    Sunday 21 June
    Group A: Italy v Wales (18:00, Rome)
    Group A: Switzerland v Turkey (18:00, Baku)

    Monday 22 June
    Group C: Play-off winner D or A v Netherlands (18:00, Amsterdam)
    Group C: Ukraine v Austria (18:00, Bucharest)
    Group B: Russia v Denmark (21:00, Copenhagen)
    Group B: Finland v Belgium (21:00, St Petersburg)

    Tuesday 23 June
    Group D: Czech Republic v England (21:00, London)
    Group D: Croatia v Play-off winner C (21:00, Glasgow)

    Wednesday 24 June
    Group E: Play-off winner B v Spain (18:00, Bilbao)
    Group E: Sweden v Poland (18:00, Dublin)
    Group F: Germany v Play-off winner A or D (21:00, Munich)
    Group F: Portugal v France (21:00, Budapest)

    Top two in each group plus four best third-placed teams go through

    KNOCKOUT PHASE

    Round of 16

    Saturday 27 June
    1: 2A v 2B (18:00, Amsterdam)
    2: 1A v 2C (21:00, London

    Sunday 28 June
    3: 1C v 3D/E/F (18:00, Budapest)
    4: 1B v 3A/D/E/F (21:00, Bilbao)

    Monday 29 June
    5: 2D v 2E (18:00, Copenhagen)
    6: 1F v 3A/B/C (21:00, Bucharest)

    Tuesday 30 June
    7: 1D v 2F (18:00, Dublin)
    8: 1E v 3A/B/C/D (21:00. Glasgow)

    Rest days on 1 and 2 July

    Quarter-finals

    Friday 3 July
    QF1: Winner 6 v Winner 5 (18:00, Saint Petersburg)
    QF2: Winner 4 v Winner 2 (21:00, Munich)

    Saturday 4 July
    QF3: Winner 1 v Winner 3 (18:00, Baku)
    QF4: Winner 8 v Winner 7 (21:00, Rome)

    Rest days on 5 and 6 July

    Semi-finals

    Tuesday 7 July
    SF1: Winner QF1 v Winner QF2 (21:00, London)

    Wednesday 8 July
    SF2: Winner QF4 v Winner QF3 (21:00, London)

    Rest days on 9, 10, 11 July

    Final

    Sunday 12 July
    Winner SF1 v Winner SF2 (21:00, London)
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