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Category splits

Announcement made today says all Wembley games under subscribed only advice given regards Wembley is for fans first being over subscribed..looks to me that cat 3 for groups is oversubscribed 7880  applied for cat 3  50% of 12000 = 6000 - 30% leaves 4200 for those in the 70% guaranteed a tick in cat 3 I know they said we could get over 50% but even so ? Last 16 and q/f under 5000 applied over the 3 category’s so far , suppose people are going to miss out if they pick wrong category am I right here ok both instances .

66 Replies

  • Tim Powell

    In reply to Paddy Buckley:

    I think we have to assume that the FA are saying there will be a 70/20/10 split in each of the categories based on the calculations. I'm on 44 caps (needless to say the cut off for guaranteed Cat 3 R of 16 tickets!) and there are 1457 members on 44 or above (with 146 on 44 exactly). 70% of 2009 is 1406 so effectively they seem to be saying that you'd only be guaranteed one of the 2009 Cat 3 tickets if you're one of the 1311 members on 45 caps or above because of those on 44, 95 would be balloted and get a Cat 3 whilst 51 wouldn't.

    I doubt every single member on 45 and above will apply/attend so it may not be an issue but regardless of my own situation, the maths seem to confirm that the FA are saying they'll conduct a ballot of 70/20/10 per category which I guess is at least in keeping with the overarching rule even if some relatively high cappers might have to pay for a category higher than they'd hoped.
  • Tim Powell

    In reply to David Lilley:

    Thanks for the clarification but that means their advice about 44 caps for Round of 16 doesn't make sense based on the calculations I've just outlined in the previous submission unless the caps table isn't up to date.
  • David Lilley

    In reply to Daren Lowry:

    Daren Lowry
    I have explained to my daughter that she will have to take her chances in a ballot and might only get one or two games, but I'd like to think that she does at least have a chance and that I haven't effectively ruled her out. We've applied for cat 3 and accepted different categories.

    On 16 caps, bearing in mind that you have ticked the box to say you would be willing to be moved to category 2, I would say that your daughter ought to get a ticket for all Wembley matches. The R16 and QF are distinctly iffy for her.

    Daren Lowry
    Another question: Is it possible for people on the same application to get different categories.

    No. On 16 caps, your daughter won't necessarily get category 3 for all Wembley matches. If she is successful for category 2 then all of the members in your group will also be moved to category 2 even though, without your daughter in the group, they might have got category 3.

  • David Lilley

    In reply to Anthony Simpson:

    Anthony Simpson
    So why are the fa advising anyone on 30 caps or less to select category 3 and to tick the box to accept tickets either side .

    The FA are saying that there are so many applications for 'fans first' that these tickets will all be allocated to members with more than 30 caps. What if you have less than 30 caps ? If you ticked the box, you will be moved to category 3 and, in your case, I would expect you to be successful. Or you could apply for category 3 in the first place. They're not saying that there is a possibility of you being moved to category 2, although that could be true for someone with fewer caps than you.

  • David Lilley

    In reply to Damian Penney:

    Damian Penney
    Again prob one for David, I’m on 16 caps and the way I have read this update is I should be ok for a Cat 3 for all the group games and either a fans first or Cat 3 for semi final and final? As there aren’t more than 7200 ahead of me in the caps table? I already have the Last 16 Dublin through UEFA so didn’t apply and the Quarter final I was gona change to Cat 2 accept in Cat 1 also. But as mentioned below why are the FA suggesting moving to Cat 3 for semi and final for people under 30 caps?

    To break it down this is my application

    3 Group Games- Cat 3 (Will accept Cat 2)
    Last 16- not applied (have uefa ticket)
    Quarter Final- Cat 2 (Will accept cat 1)
    Semi Final- Fans first (Will accept cat 3)
    Final- Fans first (Will accept Cat 3)

    I’m hoping from what I have understood the above gets me a ticket for everything.

    Your line of reasoning and your strategy both appear sound to me.

    I suppose the FA could have said members between x caps and 30 caps can apply for 'fans first' and tick the box for category 3 or just apply for category 3 in the first place. Fans below x caps should apply for category 3 and tick the box for category 2 or just apply for category 2 in the first place. But then the advice starts to get a bit complicated. It's easier just to say that below 30 caps apply for category 3 and tick the box

  • David Lilley

    In reply to Lee Gibson:

    Lee Gibson
    Isn’t there only around 2k cat 3 tickets for rd16? Would withdraw the caps cut off be for that. I’m on 35 and other 2 in group are on 31? The advice was 44 and below to go for different cat wasn’t it?

    The advice was to apply for category 2 or, at the very least, tick the box saying that you are willing to be moved to category 2.

    Your group each has enough caps to be in the 70% for the R16. You don't have enough caps to be guaranteed category 3 but you do have enough to be guaranteed either 2 or 3.

  • David Lilley

    In reply to Tim Powell:

    Tim Powell
    Thanks for the clarification but that means their advice about 44 caps for Round of 16 doesn't make sense based on the calculations I've just outlined in the previous submission unless the caps table isn't up to date.

    Agreed. The figure can't be higher than 38 even if all Travel Club members apply. It's probably lower.

  • Anthony Simpson

    In reply to David Lilley:

    Thanks again David . I will pick fan’s first for semi and final and tick box to accept category 3 .then I’m confident I will get a ticket , just didn’t want to select cat 3 and tick box then get moved up to cat 2 and pay a whole lot more much appreciated
  • Tim Powell

    In reply to David Lilley:

    It's just a bit of a coincidence that when you do the calculations, 44 caps does happen to be the cut off based on 70% of the 2009 tickets available for the R of 16 as would the 35 caps they mentioned as the cut off based on 70% of the 3452 tickets available for the QF.
  • Matthew Isle

    In reply to Joe Cobley:

    Joe Cobley
    Thanks Matt. The FA’s advice in their latest email was for all members with less than 30 caps to apply for cat 3 with option to be moved....this makes it sound like cat 3 isn’t oversubscribed which I find amazing for the semis and final! I’ll wait and see what they say on Monday but if any of you know I’m wrong in the meantime if would be good to know.....

    You're referring to the SF and F advice which is under the Fans First title.

    The ESTC are tying to enable flexibility but also certainty.

    By doing as they suggest you are actually enabling inclusion in three cats.

    As you suggest, I think wait until the next update,.in the hope that almost all have applied/tweaked their applications.

  • David Lilley

    In reply to Tim Powell:

    Tim Powell
    It's just a bit of a coincidence that when you do the calculations, 44 caps does happen to be the cut off based on 70% of the 2009 tickets available for the R of 16 as would the 35 caps they mentioned as the cut off based on 70% of the 3452 tickets available for the QF.

    I don't think it's coincidence. They've done the arithmetic which you describe but the logic behind this calculation is flawed.

  • Ian Costain

    In reply to David Lilley:

    I'm mildly amused by the Facebook post from Team England a couple of hours ago: "Based on the queries we're receiving, there appears to be a misunderstanding among some members over what a ballot is".

    Yes, I'm sure they're receiving a whole load of unnecessary queries.

    But, given they've confirmed to David that they do just one 70%/20%/10% exercise for each match, then Team England's own analysis of caps cut-offs appears to be flawed.

    I would suggest (only tongue-in-cheek of course) that there appears to be a misunderstanding among Team England over what a ballot is!?!
  • Lee Gibson

    In reply to David Lilley:

    Thanks. So by your reckoning we in the 70% and would qualify for cat 3 or 2
  • David Lilley

    In reply to Lee Gibson:

    The FA has confirmed that there is only one 70%/20%/10% exercise so you will definitely be in the 70%. If they give high cappers preference for ticket category by going down the caps table giving successful applicants their first choice or, if that's not available, their second choice, then you would get your tickets before the category 2 and 3 tickets have all gone.

  • Tony Timms

    In reply to David Lilley:

    On the money as per, thanks David.

    Just so I know I've not made a miscalculation...

    Me and my brother are both on 36 caps, we've gone Cat 3 for all games but are willing to be moved up/down. My maths tells me we are guaranteed for all including R16 and QF... although for these we could potentially end up in Cat 2.

    Correct David?

    I'm pretty sure of the answer, but nice to have that clarification of another set of eyes. The FA haven't helped themselves or us with yesterday's post really have they?
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